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Typically, as these indicators improve, the economy will be performing well and rates will either need to be raised or if the improvement is small, kept the same. On the same note, significant drops in these indicators can portend a rate cut to encourage borrowing. Outside of economic indicators, it is possible to predict a rate decision by:.
Major announcements from central bank leaders tend to play a vital role in interest rate moves. However, they are often overlooked in response to economic indicators. Whenever a board of directors from any of the eight central banks is scheduled to talk publicly, it will typically provide insights into how the bank views inflation.
At a normal session, Bernanke would read a prepared statement on the U. Bernanke, in his statement and answers, was adamant that the U. The statement session was widely followed by traders and, because it was positive, traders anticipated that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates, which brought a short-term rally on the dollar in preparation for the next rate decision. The second way to predict interest rate decisions is by analyzing predictions.
Because interest rates moves are typically anticipated, brokerages, banks, and professional traders will already have a consensus estimate as to what the rate will be. Traders can take four or five of these forecasts which should be very close numerically and average them for a more accurate prediction.
No matter how good a trader's research or how many numbers they have crunched before a rate decision is made, central banks can deliver a surprise rate hike or cut. When this happens, a trader should know in which direction the market will move. If there is a rate hike, the currency will appreciate , which means that traders will buy. If there is a cut, traders will probably sell and buy currencies with higher interest rates.
Once a trader has determined the market movement, it is crucial to do the following:. The following example illustrates the above steps in action. The rate had been steady over the previous four months as the New Zealand dollar was a hot commodity for traders to purchase due to its higher rates of return. While the quarter-percentage drop seems small, forex traders took it as a sign of the bank's fear of inflation and immediately withdrew funds or sold the currency and bought others—even if those others had lower interest rates.
As a side note, it is import to read through an actual central bank press release after determining whether there has been a surprise rate change to determine how the bank views future rate decisions. The data in the release will often induce a new trend in the currency after the short-term effects have taken place.
Following the news and analyzing the actions of central banks should be a high priority to forex traders. As the banks determine their region's monetary policy, currency exchange rates tend to move. As currency exchange rates move, traders have the ability to maximize profits—not just through interest accrual from carry trades , but also from actual fluctuations in the market.
Thorough research analysis can help a trader avoid surprise rate moves and react to them properly when they inevitably happen. Government Printing Office. Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Accessed Feb. Federal Reserve. Your Money. Personal Finance. Your Practice. Popular Courses. Table of Contents Expand. Table of Contents. Interest Rate Basics.
How Rates Are Calculated. Predicting Central Bank Rates. This occurs because setting high interest rates normally forces consumers and businesses to borrow less and save more, putting a damper on economic activity. On the other hand, when interest rates are decreasing, consumers and businesses are more inclined to borrow because banks ease lending requirements , boosting retail and capital spending, thus helping the economy to grow.
Well, currencies rely on interest rates because these dictate the flow of global capital into and out of a country. Currencies surrounded by lower interest rates are more likely to weaken over the longer term. Markets are ever-changing with the anticipation of different events and situations.
A shift in expectations is a signal that a shift in speculation will start, gaining more momentum as the interest rate change nears. While interest rates change with the gradual shift of monetary policy, market sentiment can also change rather suddenly from just a single report. This causes interest rates to change in a more drastic fashion or even in the opposite direction as originally anticipated.
So you better watch out! Below is an example of one of many ways to monitor interest rate expectations and is one of the most-watched news releases.
Carry trades may be popular where the interest rate spreads between the two currencies are high. Interest rates are crucial to day traders in the forex market because the higher the rate of return, the more interest is accrued on currency invested, and the. Interest rate parity (IRP) is the fundamental equation that governs the relationship between interest rates and currency exchange rates.