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However, they could remain hopeful as the Relative Strength Index RSI at 56 persists in bullish territory, aiming higher. A break above would expose the March 7 low-turned-resistance at 1. The Australian dollar reclaims the 0. The market reacted positively to the news, turning towards riskier assets, as they discount that the Fed might pause or slow the pace of tightening conditions. In the same release, consumer spending increased by 0. The release of upbeat economic data for Australia and the US helped risk appetite.
TD Securities analysts expect them to rise by 1. However, we think these shocks are temporary as domestic demand should be relatively resilient, as reflected in the strong Q1 retail sales outturn. We expect the RBA to make a bolder policy move in June as the economy is on a strong footing.
US equities remain positive, reflecting a risk-on mood. Although inflation is heading lower, ING analysts noted that some factors lurk in the economic environment. First, the geopolitical backdrop keeps pushing energy prices higher.
Break below would expose the DMA at 1. Once cleared, the following supply region would be the DMA at , followed by the March 8 high at. US equities are climbing during the day. Contrarily US Treasury yields remain flat, led by the year benchmark note, stationary at 2.
However, to their detriment, oscillators remain in bearish territory through directionless, opening the door for a consolidation. Break above would open the door for additional supply zones. Firstly the May 26 daily high at 0. The chart shows the primary trend is bullish and strong. According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the rupee will continue to decline versus the US dollar, at a gradual pace. We believe the rupee will continue to weaken as the Reserve Bank of India RBI is likely behind the curve in tightening monetary policy.
The RBI maintains a hefty stockpile of foreign exchange reserves and uses these asset buffers to limit rupee volatility. Recently, RBI FX intervention contained currency volatility, and going forward, we expect intervention efforts to continue to keep rupee depreciation orderly. The pair bottomed on Tuesday at It is about to post the third weekly decline in a row. The US dollar remains weak, and keeps correcting lower versus G10 currencies from multi-year highs. The improvement in risk sentiment boosted the retreat that was also driven by steady US yields.
The demand for Treasuries remained firm despite the rally in Wall Street. US yields edged lower during the week. The US year yield stands at 2. A break under On the upside a recovery above European and US equities continued rising amidst an upbeat market mood. Numbers came better than expected, showing that prices are still elevated but off the 5.
Now that inflation appears to be easing from forty-years highs, will the Fed tighten conditions at a slower pace? Failure to reclaim above The US year Treasury yield is almost flat in the day, posting minimal losses, down at 2.
Elsewhere, the US economic docket revealed additional data. Consumer spending rose 0. They warn risks are tilted to the upside. The move surprised many market participants, given the consensus forecast for a hike of only 15 bps … The minutes indicated the RBA will review the size of its rate hikes again based on new information each month.
However, we believe the risks are tilted to the upside, and it is possible that there will be a smaller decline in the currency than our base case forecast suggests. They point out that the bounce in the pair is very notable and is becoming more difficult to simply dismiss out of hand as just a temporary reversal.
The price action of late reinforces our view that the scope for notable further US dollar strength from here is becoming more limited. We remain sceptical of parity being hit. Global equities reflect a positive mood, climbing on Friday.
Investors begin to shrug off worries that inflation will keep rising. Also, the pullback in core inflation could deter the Fed from hiking rates as aggressively as previously priced in by market players, which lifted the yield on the year benchmark note to its YTD high at 3. Before Wall Street opened, additional data was revealed. Analyst of ING wrote in a note that the inflation reading is encouraging, though reiterated that bringing it back to its target will take a while.
Even the Bank of England is expecting a contraction in growth late in the year and a prolonged stagnation scenario. During the day, the major failed to break above the May 4 daily high at 1. Failure to the above-mentioned would keep the pair vulnerable, sending the pair towards the May 20 daily low at 1. Data released on Friday showed Persona Spending rose in April 0. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that for the first time since October income outpaced inflation.
They forecast consumer spending will downshift over the next quarters. Personal spending shot up 0. Once removing transfers and adjusting for inflation, real disposable personal income rose 0. With this marking the first time in five months that income outpaced inflation, as expected the level of real disposable income looks to have bottomed in March. Even though we expect consumer spending to remain below trend throughout the forecast period, we do not look for sustained declines in outlays.
The pair tumbled to It is headed toward the lowest weekly close since March The break below the support area around The next critical support is seen at the To alleviate the bearish pressure, the dollar needs to rise back above Equity markets are rising again on Friday.
Main indices are about to post the first gain after falling for seven weeks in a row. The improvement in market sentiment boosted the demand for emerging market currencies. The DXY is falling 0. At the same time, US yields remain steady, not reacting to risk appetite.
The US year stands at 2. The next board meeting is on June Oil prices have stabilised close to monthly highs on Friday, supported amid a strong end to the week for global risk assets and commodity markets, and with familiar supportive themes in focus. Traders continue to cite expectations for strong US fuel demand as peak driving season there approaches and as US gasoline inventories continue to decline weekly EIA data released on Wednesday showed another drop as supportive to the price action.
The bloc is now reportedly working on a deal that would ban seaborne imports, but allow pipeline imports to continue in a bid to placate land-locked Hungary, the nation that has held things up until now. Commodity analysts expect fresh EU sanctions would be a major hit to Russian production, which has already dropped substantially since the start of its invasion of Ukraine back in February.
Aside from Russia, plenty of other smaller mostly African producers have struggled to keep up with output quota hikes in recent months. Elsewhere, the situation in China is less of a concern as of late. Though Beijing remains in lockdown, restrictions in Shanghai are soon set to be lifted and further improvement could provide further tailwinds for crude oil prices next week.
Typically, these chart patterns precede a bullish breakout. Analysts at Credit Suisse now look for a turn back lower from here. Given both our bullish USD and bearish GBP view, we have a high level of conviction that the market will fail here and see an eventual resumption of the core downtrend.
Below here open up next support at 1. Meanwhile, the Consumer Expectations index was revised lower to The 1-year measure of inflation expectations was also revised lower to 5. The data hasn't triggered a market reaction, but the revision lower to inflation expectations could weigh on the dollar a tad, as it further bolsters the "peak inflation" narrative that is in focus after Core PCE data showed an easing of US price pressures in April earlier in the day.
Extra risks facing TRY also come from the domestic backyard, as inflation gives no signs of abating, real interest rates remain entrenched in negative figures and the political pressure to keep the CBRT biased towards low interest rates remain omnipresent.
Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Structural reforms. So far, the pair is losing 0. On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at The pair was last trading in the 0. The pair is eyeing a test of monthly highs in the 0. Lifting the mood in recent trade and also somewhat weighing on the US dollar was US Core PCE inflation data for April that lent support to the idea that price pressures in the US have peaked, thus reducing the pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy quite so aggressively.
But the kiwi has also derived support from domestic New Zealand factors this week, which go some way in explaining its outperformance versus most of the rest of its non-US dollar G10 peers. The RBNZ raised interest rates by 50 bps to 2. Expectations that the US central could pause the current rate hike cycle later this year dragged the US Treasury bond yields to a multi-week low. This, along with a generally positive risk tone, undermined the safe-haven US dollar.
This, in turn, benefitted the risk-sensitive aussie, which drew additional support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish signal earlier this week. From a technical perspective, the recent recovery move from the YTD low along an upward sloping channel points to a well established short-term bullish trend. A subsequent move beyond the This is closely followed by the very important day SMA, currently around the 0.
On the flip side, any meaningful pullback now seems to find decent support near the 0. Spot prices could then test the Failure to defend the aforementioned support levels will shift the bias back in favour of bearish traders. Economists at Scotiatbank believe that cable is unlikely to see a push higher towards the 1. EUR sellers emerge in mid However, economists at Scotiabank expect the pair to inch higher towards the 1. But the higher highs, higher lows price action suggests gains extending towards 1.
Economists at Credit Suisse we look for a turn back lower from here, for a move to 1. We expect a much tougher barrier here and for the medium-term downtrend to reassert itself from here and we therefore now turn tactically bearish again. Gold is currently on course to post a weekly gain of about 0. The latest US inflation data will come as a relief to the Fed and takes away some of the pressure to raise interest rates back to neutral around 2.
Though markets still expect 50 bps rate moves at the next two meetings June and July , the argument for what would be a fourth successive 50 bps hike in September is somewhat diminished. Meanwhile, if inflation continues to ease back from current levels in the months ahead, the Fed will feel more at ease in pausing rate hikes once it gets back to neutral and reassessing the need for further tightening.
These will be key themes in the weeks ahead. The upcoming preliminary release of the May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey at GMT will be worth watching for a timely read on how well the US consumer is holding up. Indeed, the pair now exchanges gains with losses amidst the equally lack of a clear direction in the greenback, which managed to bounce off new monthly lows near As usual, price action in spot should reflect dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence.
Occasional pockets of strength in the single currency, however, should appear reinforced by speculation the ECB could raise rates at some point in the summer, while higher German yields, elevated inflation and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.
Eminent issues on the back boiler : Speculation of the start of the hiking cycle by the ECB as soon as this summer. Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. So far, spot is losing 0. On the other hand, the immediate hurdle aligns at 1. The data indicated that inflationary pressures in the US might be easing and reaffirmed the idea that the US central could pause the current rate hike cycle later this year.
This was evident from the recent slump in the US Treasury bond yields to a multi-week low, which, along with the risk-on impulse, weighed on the safe-haven US dollar. Bulls seemed rather unimpressed and largely shrugged off modest pullback in crude oil prices, which tend to undermine the commodity-linked loonie. The MoM pace of inflation according to the index came in at 0. Elsewhere, Personal Incomes rose at a pace of 0.
Personal Spending, meanwhile, grew at a pace of 0. The broadly in line with expectations inflation data has not triggered much of a market reaction just yet. Biden had reportedly hoped to make the announcement as soon as this weekend, though this has been delayed in light of the recent massacre in Texas. The timing of the relief isn't clear, but would mark a massive fiscal injection that critics might argue could make the Fed's inflation-fighting job harder.
Analysts increasingly believe that inflation in the US might have now peaked, and might well ease back over the remainder of the year, thus allowing the Fed to pause its rate hikes once it gets back to neutral around 2. The upcoming data will thus be viewed in the context of whether it supports or pushes back against this narrative.
Minutes from the May FOMC meeting released on Wednesday suggested that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle after two 50 bps hikes each in June and July amid the worsening economic outlook. Apart from this, a modest USD rebound from a fresh monthly low helped limit any further losses, at least for the time being, though any meaningful recovery still seems elusive. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities on the last day of the week.
European Union nations are reportedly working on a Russia oil sanction deal that could be signed at next week's EU Council Summit that would exclude oil delivered into the EU via pipelines, two EU officials told Reuters. Bloomberg had reported something similar earlier in the day. The exclusion of oil delivered by pipelines is designed to win over the approval of landlocked nations such as Hungary, who have thus far pushed back against plans for a broad EU ban on Russian oil imports.
Leaders of EU 27 nations will be meeting on May and any EU sanction plan must get unanimous approval from all nations. But analysts have also attributed a few domestic UK factors as lending support to the rebound. Some analysts said that this larger than expected injection of fiscal stimulus which will be spread over the summer and autumn might encourage the BoE to revise higher its very pessimistic UK growth forecasts for this year and next.
Still, FX strategists continue to warn that the UK growth outlook remains far weaker than in the US, meaning the outlook for BoE policy is far less hawkish than the outlook at the Fed. The headline gauge is expected to hold steady at a 6. The core reading, however, is anticipated to have eased to 4. A better figure means more rate hikes and a stronger dollar, while a weak figure implies the global economy is weakening — sending investors to the safety of the world's reserve currency.
Initial support is located at 1. As long as the pair manages to end the week above 1. The Personal Spending released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by individuals. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth: While Personal spending stimulates inflationary pressures, it could lead to raise interest rates.
A high reading is positive or Bullish for the USD. That said, the next up barrier now appears at the day SMA, today at 1. The breakout of this area should mitigate the selling pressure and allow for a probable move to the weekly high at 1. Nagel warned that it may take some time for inflation to fall in the Eurozone. Earlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde outlined new interest rate guidance in a blog post, where she indicated taking Eurozone interest rates back into positive territory by the end of the third quarter.
Thus Nagel's views seem to be well aligned with Lagarde's. The breakdown of the May low at While above this area, further gains in the very near term in the dollar should remain well on the table. The longer-term positive outlook for the index is seen constructive while above the day SMA at The succession of higher lows since mid-May leaves the prospects for further upside well on the table for the time being. That said, while above the 2-month support line near In the meantime, while above the day SMA at The bright metal is looking to retest the two-week highs on the road to recovery, as the US dollar is struggling to recover further ground amid mixed market sentiment and subdued Treasury yields.
Gold sellers will then target the intersection of the SMA four-hour, pivot point one-month S1 and the Fibonacci The TCD Technical Confluences Detector is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.
If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.
The spot is still up 0. Bulls are now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 0. Signs that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle after two 50 bps hikes each in June and July amid the worsening economic outlook, along with the risk-on impulse continued weighing on the safe-haven US dollar.
Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hit at even higher rates going forward further benefitted the risk-sensitive kiwi. Looking at the broader technical picture, the recent recovery from the YTD low has been along an upward sloping channel. This points to a well-established short-term bullish trend and supports prospects for additional gains.
Some follow-through buying beyond the aforementioned 0. The momentum could further get extended towards the next relevant hurdle near the 0. On the flip side, any meaningful pullback below the 0. This is followed by the A weekly close above 1. Crude oil prices held steady near a two-month high and continued underpinning the commodity-linked loonie. Apart from this, the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar exerted downward pressure on the major.
Despite worries about softening global economic growth, expectations of demand recovery in China and the impending European Union embargo on Russian oil imports extended support to the black liquid. This added to supply concerns and acted as a tailwind for oil. On the other hand, the USD was pressured by speculations that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle later this year amid the worsening economic outlook. Doubt over the Fed's ability to bring inflation under control without sinking the economy into recession dragged the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low.
This, along with the risk-on impulse, weighed on the safe-haven greenback. Hence, some follow-through decline, towards testing the day SMA, currently around the 1. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, 1Q22 GDP rose 0.
The upward revision is in line with our call for GDP to grow at 3. The spot is off the lows, tracking the recovery in the US dollar across its main peers. The downside in the major also appears capped amid a minor bounce in the US Treasury yields and positive European equities. Note that the latest slew of US macro data has not been very encouraging and has collaborated with the downside in the buck. If the latter gives way on a sustained basis, then a test of the wedge lower boundary at The day Relative Strength Index RSI is inching lower below the midline, suggesting that there is scope for additional weakness going forward.
Daily closing above that hurdle will confirm a falling wedge breakout, recalling buyers for a fresh run towards the downward-pointing DMA at Ahead of that upside target, the The Australian dollar continued drawing support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish signal that a bigger interest rate hike is still possible in June amid the upside risks to inflation.
Apart from this, the prevalent US dollar selling bias provided an additional boost to the major and contributed to the ongoing bullish move. The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday suggested that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle after two 50 bps hikes each in June and July amid the worsening economic outlook. This, in turn, dragged the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low, which, along with the risk-on impulse, weighed heavily on the buck.
Meanwhile, the intraday move up pushed spot prices beyond the 0. Hence, a subsequent strength, towards reclaiming the 0. The momentum could further get extended to the day SMA, around the 0. Gold is trending sideways. Economists at Commerzbank note that the yellow metal is not attracting the attention of investors with risk flows dominating the financial markets. The pair gained positive traction for the third successive day on Friday - also marking the sixth day of a positive move in the previous seven - and confirmed a bullish breakout through the 1.
The momentum pushed spot prices to the highest level since April 26 and was sponsored by the prevalent US dollar selling bias. Doubt over the Fed's ability to bring inflation under control without sinking the economy into recession led to an extension of the recent decline in the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low, which, along with the risk-on impulse, dragged the USD to a fresh one month low.
That said, diminishing odds for any further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the UK-EU impasse over Northern Ireland acted as a headwind for the British pound. With risk flows dominating the financial markets on Thursday, Wall Street's main indexes registered impressive gains and the dollar continued to lose interest.
Although the market mood seems to have turned cautious early Friday, the US Dollar Index trades at its lowest level in a month near the mid Earlier in the day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said they were expecting Russia's oil production to decline to million tonnes this year from million tonnes in Bloomberg reported on Friday that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang warned of dire consequences if they fail to prevent the economy from sliding further and noted that a contraction in the second quarter must be avoided.
Meanwhile, the US and Taiwan are reportedly planning to announce economic talks to deepen their ties, which could be seen as a factor that could cause US-China geopolitical tensions to escalate. The pair remains on track to close the second straight week in positive territory. The data from Australia showed that Retail Sales rose by 0. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted on Friday that they are not expecting prices to rise sustainably unless accompanied by wage hikes.
Gold struggled to gather bullish momentum on Thursday as the benchmark year US Treasury bond yield continued to move up and down near 2. Gold built on the overnight bounce from the very important day SMA support and edged higher on the last day of the week. The US dollar prolonged its recent bearish trend and dropped to a fresh one-month low on Friday, which, in turn, benefitted the dollar-denominated gold. The speculations were further fueled by Thursday's release of the Prelim US GDP report, which showed that the world's largest economy contracted by a 1.
This was seen as a key factor that exerted downward pressure on the buck. Meanwhile, doubt over the Fed's ability to bring inflation under control without sinking the economy into recession continued dragging the US Treasury bond yields lower. In fact, the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low, which further undermined the greenback and offered additional support to the non-yielding gold.
That said, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - could act as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. This might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets. This, along with the US bond yields will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to gold. Apart from this, traders will take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities on the last day of the week.
So far, spot is gaining 0. On the other hand, a breach of 1. Risk appetite remains sluggish during early Friday in Europe as market players struggle for fresh impulses. However, the Euro Stoxx 50 Futures register an advance of 0.
On the same line are the fears of global economic slowdown, mainly due to covid-led lockdown in China and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Also important will be the Fedspeak and the geopolitical headlines concerning China and Russia. The dollar is set to face a second consecutive week of losses against all G10 currencies.
However, economists at ING think that the combination of a material improvement in the global risk environment and further USD-adverse widening of short-term rate differentials is unlikely, and therefore expect the dollar to find a floor soon. Hungarian forint has hit the weakest levels since the beginning of March. Economists at ING note that the pair could reach its highest level in history if the central bank does not hike rates next week.
However, this is far from certain. Thus, market disappointment may lead to further forint weakening to the level, which would be the weakest in history. Thus, we are negative on the forint in the short-term, but we continue to monitor headlines that should unlock the hidden potential of the forint in the second half of the year.
Asked if it would be a one percentage point impact, he said: "Much, much less than that. Asked about a possible windfall tax on electricity generators, "What we want to do and we are going to do urgently is understand the scale of those profits, and then decide on the appropriate next steps. The pair is currently trading at 1. In the view of economists at ING, the bar to trigger further hawkish repricing in the Bank of England BoE rate expectation curve is quite elevated, Subsequently, the British pound is set to face some pressure from the short-term rate differential side.
A consolidation around 0. However, economists at ING expect the pair to move back lower towards the 1. However, a two-week-long symmetrical triangle restricts the immediate moves of the quote. Will US Treasury yields move higher? Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy for Morgan Stanley, forecasts an inverted yield curve at year-end with two-year Treasury yields reaching 3. At the end of the year, they see the Fed funds target range at 2.
With inflation remaining high and growth slowing, discussions of stagflation or outright recession should continue to lead investor debate this year. And ultimately, that should limit the degree to which Treasury yields rise into year-end. The index accelerates losses and breaks below the The dollar extends the weekly leg lower and threatens to put the In the meantime, a tighter rate path by the Federal Reserve looks more and more priced in, while the elevated inflation narrative and the tight labour market seem to still support further upside in the dollar in the longer run.
Escalating geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. Now, the index is retreating 0. On the flip side, the breakout of They note that risk sentiment is the latest driver for the greenback. Considering advanced prints from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest dropped for the second straight session on Thursday, now by around Volume, instead, rose for the second session in a row, this time by around That daily performance was amidst shrinking open interest, leaving the door open to the continuation of the uptrend in the very near term.
Its slide extended to near 1. Economists at Westpac believe that the pair could race higher towards 1. That said, the Swiss currency CHF pair consolidates intraday losses around 0. The focus is on the dollar side of the equation, therefore, the kiwi could enjoy gains as the greenback may have peaked, economists at ANZ Bank report.
However, at the moment they are being overshadowed by growing fears in FX markets of a domestic hard landing and we view that as a potential headwind for the NZD. The odds of upside seem lucrative amid a firmer rebound in the positive market sentiment. The risk-on impulse is underpinning the risk-sensitive assets and the pound bulls are enjoying liquidity at the cost of the yen bulls. Rising Inflation in the UK area is the major catalyst, which is worrying the pound bulls. The Bank of England BOE is deploying the majority of its quantitative measures to control the soaring inflation.
It is worth noting that the BOE raised its interest rate by 25 basis points bps in the first week of May. As per the market consensus, the BOE could feature a jumbo rate hike in its June monetary policy. Considering the galloping inflationary pressures, a rate hike announcement by 50 bps seems highly required. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is worried over grounded inflation in its region.
Dollar keeps bleeding as bearish correction continues May 23, Dollar sags as investor sentiment keeps improving May 23, USD treads water after plunge, markets steady ahead of the weekend May 20, Modest bounce after sell-off ahead of the weekend May 20, Load More. Saturday, May 28, Forex World News. Technical analysis. Dollar comes off fresh lows in volatile trading by Joseph Deen. May 27, Read more.
Investors cautiously optimistic ahead of the weekend. USD back under pressure as market sentiment improves. Markets digest FOMC meeting minutes. Dollar off one-month lows as bulls reenter the game. Stocks bounce after another widespread sell-off.
Greenback trims losses, but stays offered nearly across the board. June 22, June 17, Investors cautiously optimistic ahead of the weekend by Stephen Soo. May 26, Stocks bounce after another widespread sell-off by Stephen Soo. May 25, July 15, May 3,
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