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Forex forecasts strategy

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So, if the current exchange rate was 90 cents U. Meaning it would now take 92 cents U. This lighthearted index attempts to measure whether a currency is undervalued or overvalued based on the price of Big Macs in various countries. Since Big Macs are nearly universal in all the countries they are sold, a comparison of their prices serves as the basis for the index.

As the name may suggest, the relative economic strength approach looks at the strength of economic growth in different countries in order to forecast the direction of exchange rates. The rationale behind this approach is based on the idea that a strong economic environment and potentially high growth are more likely to attract investments from foreign investors. And, in order to purchase investments in the desired country, an investor would have to purchase the country's currency—creating increased demand that should cause the currency to appreciate.

This approach doesn't just look at the relative economic strength between countries. It takes a more general view and looks at all investment flows. For instance, another factor that can draw investors to a certain country is interest rates.

High interest rates will attract investors looking for the highest yield on their investments, causing demand for the currency to increase, which again would result in an appreciation of the currency. Conversely, low interest rates can also sometimes induce investors to avoid investing in a particular country or even borrow that country's currency at low interest rates to fund other investments.

Many investors did this with the Japanese yen when the interest rates in Japan were at extreme lows. This strategy is commonly known as the carry trade. The relative economic strength method doesn't forecast what the exchange rate should be, unlike the PPP approach.

Rather, this approach gives the investor a general sense of whether a currency is going to appreciate or depreciate and an overall feel for the strength of the movement. It is typically used in combination with other forecasting methods to produce a complete result.

Another common method used to forecast exchange rates involves gathering factors that might affect currency movements and creating a model that relates these variables to the exchange rate. The factors used in econometric models are typically based on economic theory, but any variable can be added if it is believed to significantly influence the exchange rate.

They believe an econometric model would be a good method to use and has researched factors they think affect the exchange rate. From their research and analysis, they conclude the factors that are most influential are: the interest rate differential between the U. The econometric model they come up with is shown as:.

The coefficients a, b, and c will determine how much a certain factor affects the exchange rate and direction of the effect whether it is positive or negative. This method is probably the most complex and time-consuming approach, but once the model is built, new data can be easily acquired and plugged in to generate quick forecasts.

Forecasting exchange rates is a very difficult task, and it is for this reason that many companies and investors simply hedge their currency risk. However, those who see value in forecasting exchange rates and want to understand the factors that affect their movements can use these approaches as a good place to begin their research.

The Economist. Your Money. Personal Finance. Your Practice. Popular Courses. To predict exchange rates, we conjecture that forecasters based their choice of factors on the experience by the market participants themselves through a criterion different from the statistical criterion used by econometricians. To explore the determinants of the consensus forecast issued by analysts, we use a rank-based estimation. Rank-based estimators were developed as a robust nonparametric alternative to least squares estimators.

The surveys of exchange rate and interest rate expectations come from Fx4Casts and Bloomberg. The sample spans from October to December for a total of 16 years for 20 currencies. Table 1 displays the basic statistics for currencies. Successful trading rules developed by currency analysts and academics are implemented for comparison with the returns of consensus forecast and as factors to explain the consensus currency expected rank of return.

The carry to risk strategy involves buying high interest rate currencies and selling low ones. Because our sample includes countries with higher inflation, we use the 3-month real interest rates. The interest spread is scaled by the currency volatility.

The RR portfolio is long on currencies that has underperformed over the last 5 years and short on overachieving ones based on the real currency value. The momentum strategy buys currencies with the highest return over the last 6 months and short currencies with the lowest return. The portfolio flow strategy is long on currencies that registered positive flows over the previous month and short on currencies that experienced negative flows.

The consensus forecast strategy is long on currency with the highest expected return by analysts over 1 year and short on currencies with the lowest expected returns. The portfolio construction is as follows: each currency is ranked according to a factor. Two portfolios are formed. The "long" portfolio comprises the 4 currencies with the highest loadings and the "short" is formed using those with the lowest loadings.

As seen in Table 2 , over the last 16 years, a simple strategy of using the consensus forecast provided an excess return over cash of 5. This excess return is higher than all the other typical currency strategies used in the market. As seen in Figure 1 , the return is constant and higher than other strategies tested. Notably, most other strategies performed adequately in certain periods but experienced some negative performance in other periods, which is not the case for the consensus strategy.

However, the consensus strategy shows a large kurtosis and remains volatile in risky environments like other strategies. This figure shows out of sample returns 6 currency strategies, the sample covers to We test if the usual generic currency models or factors used by market participants could explain the forecast ranking of currencies. We assume that the currency forecasters use those generic models to help them to form their forecast.

As seen in Table 3 , there are striking differences in how analysts determine their expected return. Analysts do not interpret signals for developed and emerging currencies in the same way. For developed markets, the usual generic trading signals such as carry trade, return reversal, momentum and fund flows are all significant with positive impact. Notably, PPP is not significant. Hence, currency analysts seem to use the generic strategy to help them to rank currencies.

Currency forecasters are aware of those anomalies and use them accordingly. This is not the same for emerging currencies. Above all, carry trade and momentum signals have significant negative impact as the PPP factor is strongly positive and significant. The interpretation is quite different in emerging currencies as the focus is related to the longer-term equilibrium value of a currency as reflected by the PPP strategy.

The rise in interest rates is often linked to a troubling economy and a defensive position from the central bank and linked to subsequent large devaluation which could explain the negative coefficient. The main role of currency analysts is to provide financial advice to their clients. In that regard, we show that currency analysts seem to provide valuable information to portfolio managers.

The consensus currency forecast is better explained by a combination of generic trading models. Blake, D. The Journal of Finance , Vol. Cheung, Y. Journal of International Money and Finance. Da, Z. Journal of Financial Markets, Vol. Engel, C. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. Jongen, R. Journal of Economic Surveys, , Meese, R. Journal of International Economics, Vol. Pierdzioch, C. International Review of Economics and Finance, 38, Rossi, B. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. Fully international and directly connected to the business world, EDHEC is a school for business, rather than a business school, where excellence in teaching and research focuses on innovation to stimulate entrepreneurship and creativity.

EDHEC functions as a genuine laboratory of ideas and produces innovative solutions valued by businesses. Skip to main content. EN FR.

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Using a currency exchange rate forecast can help brokers and businesses make informed decisions to help minimize risks and maximize returns. Sign up to receive your free trading guides and forecasts on the forex, stock and commodities markets. Suitable for beginner and advanced traders. Follow our weekly forecast for forex and gold and find expert predictions, analysis and currency forecast tools to help you trade more consistently.