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Currently, the unemployment rate of the EU is much higher than in the UK. It measures the overall health of an economy and the higher the GDP growth rate, the stronger the currency would be. However, often one overtakes each other. You do not need to be an economist to understand how inflation affects a given set of currency pair, but some basic understanding would help you go the extra mile. You see, most central banks have a monetary policy that tries to limit inflation rate to a certain predefined range.
When inflation goes above this range, central banks usually increase the interest rate to curb down inflation. Most central banks try to limit inflation rate to 2. So, if you are trading the U. Dollar and want to anticipate the future interest rate landscape, use the PCE index. Nevertheless, anytime you see a forecast of growing CPI, it would be bullish news for the currency. You see, banks also borrow money from each other, but they do it on an overnight basis.
Central banks try to influence the overnight rate by lending in the money market at their own overnight rate and it is an important tool in their monetary policy arsenal. Overnight interest rate is the key reason prices fluctuate in the market as it also affects the swap rate. In fact, many traders think that the main purpose of fundamental analysis is to predict future interest rates of major central banks.
While understanding monetary policy is difficult, even for veteran economists, the way to interpret this news is rather easy. If you see a forecast that says the Federal Reserve will likely increase the overnight rate, it will likely have a bullish effect on the U. The nonfarm payrolls figure measures the number of additional jobs added from the previous month in the corporate sector in America, which is an important leading indicator of the overall employment situation in the country.
The U. Dollar is the de facto reserve currency in the world and the nonfarm payrolls data is usually released on the first Friday of each month by the U. While there is not an equivalent data release in every economy, you should definitely keep an eye on the U.
NFP as it will eventually have major impacts on almost all currency pairs involving the U. If you see the forecast of the NFP is higher compared to last month, it is bullish news for the U. OPEC is basically a cartel on an international level. There is a strong correlation between the currency market and oil price because of how resources are distributed. Hence, it can affect the balance of trade BOT of a currency, and influence market psychology.
You see, Crude oil is quoted in U. Hence, any national currency of a country that has a large crude oil reserve will be impacted by the crude oil price. Furthermore, low energy price means more disposable income will be left to consumers and it can create demand for goods and services, boosting sales. But it may not have a significant impact on the Japanese Yen because Japan does not have large oil reserves.
While it is difficult to analyze what would be the impact of oil price on a given currency, knowing and understanding the impact by reading detailed analysis can help you sense the pulse of the market and make better trading decisions.
Retail sales reports are usually issued on a monthly basis and market analysts consider it as a leading macroeconomic indicator. When consumers feel safe and secure about their jobs, they tend to spend more on durable and non-durable goods, which boosts transactions and creates value.
In terms, retail sales can be a pretty good indicator of future the GDP growth rate. How retail sales are influencing it can give you an edge in the market because you can predict GDP growth well before the quarterly reports! However, analyzing retail sales is somewhat tricky because it is also dependent on wage growth and overall productivity level in the economy. Therefore, before analyzing retail sales data, you have to keep in mind that while increasing sales can lead to inflation, it can also indicate overconfidence in the economy.
After all, if productivity and wages are not growing, but only retail sales go up, it can also indicate that people are buying things to stock necessary items because they expect a slowdown in the economy! In the end, the rule of thumb is, if retail sales go up of one country and it is the base currency of the pair, but it remains stagnant in another which is the quote currency, it will be a piece of bullish news for the base currency.
The survey asks managers to rate what is their perspective about the business over a 6-month period if they plan to hire new workers or reduce the size of the workforce, and things like the inventory level to fill new orders. The way to interpret the PMI is keeping an eye on if the number is above or below If it is below 50, it indicates there might be a recession coming and if it is over 50, then the economy is expected to expand.
Hence, this will allow you to make necessary actions to secure your funds. You can find our email in Contacts. Company site: www. Forex industry news. The latest significant events in Forex industry. TurboXBT is a next-level synthetic trading platform that allows you to earn up to….
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|Oil stock predictions 2021||The study found that the effect on returns generally occurs in the first or second day, but the impact does seem to linger until the fourth day. While debate continues on the transition from fossil fuels to green energy, the nation will rely on oil and gas for the foreseeable future. Generally speaking, the most important information relates to changes in interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, like retail sales, manufacturingand industrial production:. This method disregards a directional bias and simply plays on the fact that a big news report will create a big move. More View more. Therefore, you will need to make quick judgements on how to trade the announcement.|
|Norway forex reserves||Rupee rebounds vs dollar as greenback hits month low. British pound GBP 4. How can traders use Twitter as an efficient trading tool. The Hang Seng index was lifted after Alibaba and Baidu beat sales expectations and risk assets rose across the board. View more. DailyFX analyst HathornSabin speaks about her experience as a trader and how she learned to read the markets.|
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Follow all the latest forex news, trading strategies, commodities reports & events at DailyFX. Follow our real-time news feed for live forex news and top stories in the global financial markets. View news alerts, trending tweets, expert analysis and. Forex News: Get latest Forex News, Forex Market updates and Analysis on Economic The dollar started the week just off a year high against peers on.